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EGX30
RIC: .EGX30
Monthly Chart
Weekly Chart
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Daily Chart
Although the current situation in the Egyptian Stock Market is undecided, a multiple timeframe analysis -for each index separately- can give us the advantage of expecting the upcoming move and the guidelines to deal with it. EGX30’s monthly chart shows that the index cleared its major rising (dashed blue) trend line turning the trend to a sideways one. It is currently forming a possible top reversal pattern near a significant cluster of Fibonacci resistance levels. A decisive breakout below 8,100 level will clear the significant 21 month SMA and complete the topping pattern to assign downside targets near 7,700 - 7,000 then 6,200 levels. Various bearish signals appeared on monthly volume and price momentum indicators providing a significant evidence of weakness in the index and suggesting much weakness to come. In addition, the weekly chart illustrates that the index cleared its 50 week SMA indicating a change in the prior major uptrend. It is currently testing the lower band of a slightly rising (green) channel which lies near the significant 89 week SMA. The decisive breakout below the lower band of the channel will assign targets near 7,700 - 7,000 then 6,600 levels. Weekly volume and price momentum indicators are showing a joint bearish breakout after multiple negative divergences suggesting a possible bearish breakout in the price. Zooming in, the daily chart shows a false bearish breakout below the (green) channel, however the dead cross between 34 & 144 SMAs gives a long-term bearish signal which indicates the beginning of a new bear trend. On the other hand the decisive breakout above 9,350 will send prices near 10,000 level. Volume and price momentum indicators started to show bullish signals suggesting a possible short-term bullish rebound. All traders are advised to hold with a stop loss below 8,300 level, otherwise buy the decisive breakout above 34 SMA (8,800 – 9,000 area).
BOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: 8,652 pt.) The current unhealthy long term
view of the index triggers the alert of a possible impending top. All traders are advised to reduce their long positions and respect a stop loss below 8,300 level, otherwise buy the decisive breakout above 9,000 level
SIGNIFICANT LEVELS First
Second
Third
8,500
8,100
7,900
Resistance
8,750/8,800
9,075
9,350
Stop Loss
8,300
8,100
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-
-
-
Support
Target
* This is an interactive report; kindly press the buttons to show related charts
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EGX70
RIC: .EGX70
Monthly Chart
Weekly Chart
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Daily Chart
The monthly chart shows that the index has finished a (pink) reversal rectangle pattern after rebounding 50% of the prior major bear trend and has just fulfilled its target near 458 level. Although momentum indicators are still showing bearish structures, they are approaching their support levels suggesting a possible near pause in the current long-term downtrend. On the weekly timeframe we can see that EGX70 is still trending down inside a long-term falling (brown) channel, however it is currently testing the lower band of the channel at 61.8% retracement level of the prior bull trend. Volume and price momentum indicators are still showing a bearish structure, however they are testing their support levels that suggest respecting current levels in the price chart itself. The daily chart illustrates that EGX70 continued its downtrend after clearing the 3rd band of the (orange) Fibonacci fan. It has just respected the lower band of its long-term falling (dashed pink) channel near the 61.8% retracement level of the prior major uptrend. Volume and price momentum indicators are showing positive signs suggesting a possible bullish rebound inside the dominant longer term downtrend. Short-term traders can wait and buy the decisive breakout above the 20 SMA and the (blue) medium-term declining trend line (490 - 495 area) to the upper band of the (dashed pink) declining channel, while medium-term traders are advised to keep selling rallies till a decisive breakout above the upper band of the declining channel. On the other hand clearing 455 level will continue the way down.
BOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: 464 pt.) The dominant long-term trend is
still down, however some positive signs suggesting a possible interrupting short-term bullish correction. Short-term traders can hold with a stop loss below 455 level and buy the decisive breakout above 495 level
SIGNIFICANT LEVELS First
Second
Third
470
455/450
438
Resistance
480/485
495
505
Stop Loss
455
-
-
-
-
-
Support
Target
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EGX100
RIC: .EGX100
Monthly Chart
Weekly Chart
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Daily Chart
EGX100’s monthly chart shows that the index has finished a topping pattern after facing a ceiling of supply near a cluster of Fibonacci percentages to assign downside targets near 900 then 840 levels. Monthly volume and price momentum indicators are showing bearish signals confirming the price chart itself. However, a significant buying pressure is met near the 36 month SMA to create a bullish pullback move before continuing the way down. Zooming in the picture a little, the weekly timeframe illustrates that the index has cleared the 2nd band of Fibonacci fan and the lower band of a topping pattern assigning downside targets near 50% then 61.8% retracement levels of the prior bull trend. A dead cross between 21 & 52 weeks SMAs adds another piece of the puzzle. It is currently testing the 3rd band of Fibonacci fan at 38.2% retracement of the prior uptrend suggesting a possible pullback move before resuming the longer term bear trend. Weekly volume and price momentum indicators made bearish signals after multiple bearish divergences confirming the long-term bearish signal in the price chart itself. The daily timeframe illustrates that the index has reached a support area at a falling support (dotted brown) line and the 3rd band of Fibonacci fan, after finishing the (brown) reversal pattern. Volume and price momentum indicators started to show bullish signs suggesting a possible bullish pullback move to the cleared band of the pattern where the 34 SMA is found before resuming the longer bear trend. Otherwise clearing the 34 SMA will signal a change in the current bear trend.
BOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: 957 pt.) The completion of the topping
pattern has reversed the trend to a downside one, however some positive signs suggest a possible interrupting short-term bullish correction before continuing the way down. All traders are advised to sell the expected rally and respect a stop loss below 938 level, otherwise buy the decisive breakout above 1,020
SIGNIFICANT LEVELS First
Second
Third
945
900/885
850
Resistance
970/980
1,020
1,045
Stop Loss
938
-
-
Target
900
830/820
-
Support
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Conclusion: It is obvious that the common factor in the main three indexes of the Egyptian Stock Market is the long-term weakness what gives bearish implications about the upcoming long-term move in the overall market. However, on the short-term view some bullish signs appeared to suggest a possible short-term recovery before continuing the way down. It is wise to reduce long positions in the expected short-term recovery move and respect near stop loss levels to prevent being caught in the market. Otherwise the failure of the bearish patterns that came in our report will cause a change of the expected negative long-term view.
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Jazira Securities Brokerage 15 Shooting Club Street, Mohandessin Tel: (+202) 3760 9983 - 37609941 Fax: (+202) 3760 9883 www.jaziracapital.com
JSB Contacts
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Tuesday, May 05, 2015
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