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Victoria Oil & Gas Plc Production Growth and Cashflow Gas & Condensate Producer in Cameroon and Exploration & Development in Russia March 2012
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The Company Victoria Oil & Gas (“VOG”) Overview: Cameroon
Capitalisation Market Cap (Mar 2012):
$160 million
VOG owns 95% of the Logbaba gas & condensate field —
Listed on AIM in July 2004
Shares Outstanding:
2.5 billion
Cash:
$7 million
Debt:
$6 million
1 YR Trading Performance (re-based)
State 5%
Gross 2P reserves: 39.5 mmboe —
212 Bcf gas plus 4.2 mmbbls condensate
Production growth and cashflow story with very attractive netbacks
Cashflow positive from June 2012; trading at 2.5x analyst consensus YE2014 earnings
First onshore gas discovery; no competition
Russia
4
VOG owns 100% of West Med oil, gas and condensate project
Adjacent to large existing production in Siberia
High impact resource play; best estimate prospective resources: 1.4 billion boe
2P reserves1: 14.4 mmboe
Aim to secure Farm-in partner in 2012
Note: Conversion rate of 6 mscf = 1 boe used 1. Russian reserves are classified as C1+C2 under the Russian reserve classification system
Company Strategy Strategy
Become a mid-size E&P player through organic growth and acquisition by 2015
Focus on core area of West Africa
Build on cash flow from Logbaba to fund further exploration and development opportunities
Become a leading player in new thermal and power projects in Cameroon
Acquire companies/assets with significant reserve and production potential —
Opportunistic, undervalued assets/distressed sellers
No paper deals at low valuation multiples
Net 2P Reserves
Net Best Estimate Prospective Resources
60
1,800
52
1,500 37
40
30
mmboe
mmboe
50
26
20 10
1,200
1,122
1,228
900 600 300
-
2009
5
1,594
2010
2011
2009
2010
2011
Company Investment Case 1) Production growth and cashflow story —
Production came on-stream in December 2011
—
1mmscf/d in May 2012 and cashflow positive by June 2012 in Logbaba
—
8 mmscf/d by end of 2012 to 44 mmscf/d by end of 2014
—
$1m of revenue per week by the end of this year
2) Favourable hydrocarbon prices —$16/mmbtu —15
(mscf) gas sales contracts secured (equivalent to $96/boe)
gas sales agreements signed, including multi-nationals
—Prices
fixed for 5 years on a 20 year exclusive gas arrangement
—Operating
margins ca. 70%
—Condensate
yield of 20 bbls/mmscf; pricing expected to be at a premium to
Brent 3) Significant exploration upside in other areas of Logbaba and in West Med —1.6
6
billion boe of best estimate prospective resources
Company Investment Case (continued) 5) Delivered Logbaba successfully and on schedule —
Drilled and completed 2 out of 2 successful wells
—
Own and control the whole energy supply chain
—
Secured a substantial market for VOG’s gas
—
Delivered first production on schedule
6) Extensive management experience in West Africa and the FSU —
Chairman and COO have extensive network of industry and government relationships with over 60 years experience
7) Undervalued by the market
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—
Trading at 2-3x analyst earnings for YE2014
—
On 2P reserves only, valued at $2.7/boe against African producer median $16.7/boe (mean $21.6/boe)
—
$160mm market cap implies a 76% discount to management estimates of Logbaba core NAV alone
—
As gas sales volumes rise, we expect a substantial re-rating
Cameroon:
Logbaba Gas & Condensate Field First Onshore Producer to Energy Hungry Market
The Logbaba Gas & Condensate Monetisation Story 2P Reserves 212 Bcf
additional future development wells
La-105 up to 55mmscf/d
La-106 up to 22 mmscf/d;
opportunity for expansion
Gas Processing Facility (2 x 20 mmscf/d processing trains)
60km
9
Condensate Trucked Pipeline Sized to 60 mmscf/d
Limbe Refinery Brent plus $2-4 premium
Industry Steam Generation Current market 15 mmscf/d
Industry On Site Power Generation Market ca. 60 mmscf/d
Production Facilities & Pipeline
10
Production Facilities
Pipeline
PRMS unit – custody transfer
First gas December 2011
Logbaba: 2012 Work Programme Forward work programme will achieve 8 mmscf/d production by the end of 2012 2011 O Production
N
2012 D
J
F
M
A
First Gas
Essential Works Wells La-105, La-106 Re-open & Commissioning Process plant Installation Commissioning Magzi Estate Reached
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Customer Conversions Scope & Definition Installation & Commissioning
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J
J
A
S
O
N
ca. 8 mmscf/d
On site Civils
Pipeline
M
Secure a further 10+ gas sales agreements for customer thermal requirements
Initiate gas to power interim solution showcasing benefits
Secure first gas to power customers
All operations and work programme on schedule in 2012
D
The Logbaba Gas Play – Energy Hungry City
Up to 40 industrial customers capable of taking large thermal and electrical energy 15 customers signed; 20 by year end and 40 by 2014+; Phase 1 nearly complete
Approx 85% of industrial market within 10 km
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Cameroon Market: Customers Gas for customers heat and power requirements represents a market anticipated to be in excess of 50 mmscf/d over the medium term Largest Current & Potential Customers by Consumption Food Processing
Chemical Industry
Breweries
BSF
Biopharma
Guinness
Camlait
CCIC
SABC
Chococam
CCC
UCB
Imperial Foods
Littocal
Nestle
Plasticam
Metallurgical
Parlite
SCR Maya
Acieres
Scalia
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Alubassa
Sic Cacaos
Other
Cimencam
Telcar Cocoas
CICAM
Fokour Foundry
Usicam
Pack Industries
Metafrique
Socaver
Prometal
Logbaba: Production and Douala Gas Demand
Logbaba production is expected to ramp up quickly. VOG has the ability to drill additional wells to increase production to meet industrial demand Additional resource of 1 Tcf may go to alternative markets
2P reserves/cautious case 3P reserves/upside case
Gas to power demand
Gas to thermal demand
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Source: Management estimates Note: Independent study in 2007 estimated 8 mmscf/d of thermal demand based on substitution of existing liquid fuels usage for thermal demand only. This fuel availability is supply constrained and manufacturing output is further hampered by power issues which can now be remedied
Logbaba: Attractive Netbacks at $16/mmbtu First natural gas supplier in Cameroon
Logbaba’s high production growth and demand build out will lead to strong cashflows
VOG has secured very attractive gas sales agreements; •
•
Prices fixed at US$16/mmbtu ($16/mscf or $96/boe) for 5 years
Pre-Tax
Post-Tax
Lifting Cost
$1 mmbtu
$4 mmbtu
Royalties
Corporation Tax
20-year gas exclusivity arrangement
$1 mmbtu
$3 mmbtu
$4 mmbtu
$11 mmbtu
Netbacks of $11/mmbtu realisable until cost recovery of ca. $100m
Approximately $8/mmbtu recoverable thereafter
Netback
$8 mmbtu
Current Alternative Fuel Prices US$/mmbtu
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Diesel:
32.00
Fuel Oil:
22.00
Kerosene:
30.00
Logbaba: Management Forecasts Prices: Gas price
Condensate
Post-Tax NPV net to VOG Industrial Gas
$16/mmbtu
($MM)
Industrial Power
$16/mmbtu
Grid Power(5) LNG Limbe Refinery
10%
15%
IRR
Proved (1P)(1)
192
154
30%
$6.5/mmbtu
Proved & Probable (2P)(2)
676
487
51%
$12/mmbtu
Proved, Probable and Possible (3P)(3)
991
690
59%
2,086
1,388
65%
$75/bbl
3P + Best Estimate Prospective Resources(4) Discounted to 1.1.12
Fiscal Terms: Corporate tax
Logbaba Gross Costs, Reserves & Ratios Reserves
38.5%
Government Royalty
8.0%
Other Royalties
5.6%
Gas
Cond.
(Bcf)
(mmbbls)
($MM)
($/boe)
($MM)
($/boe)
1P
49
1.0
180
19.6
73
8.0
2P
212
4.2
420
10.6
199
5.0
3P
350
7.0
672
10.3
296
4.5
1,350
27.0
2,192
8.7
930
3.7
3P + PR
16
Capex
Opex
Notes: (1) 5 mmscf/d in 2012 rising to 20 mmscf/d supplied to industrial customers for gas & on site power (2) 5 mmscf/d in 2012 supplied to industrial customers for gas & on site power rising to 44 mmscf/d plateau production by 2015 (3) As in case 2 but rising to 60 mmscf/d plateau production by 2015 (4) As in case 3 but VOG supplying gas to new IPP 500MW facility (with 125 mmscfd) by 2015 and a new LNG facility with 40 mmscf/d incremental demand by 2013 (5) Gas for power generation to be connected to the grid has been priced at $6.50 per mmbtu until further negotiation with ARSEL, the state regulator
Logbaba: Reserves Results from petroleum consultant Blackwatch Petroleum Services in October 2010 Analysed seismic, well logs and test data from La-105 & La-106 and original four wells
Gross Proved Reserves (1P) increased five fold from July 2008 study to 49 Bcf + 1.0 mmbbls of condensate Gross Proved plus Probable (2P) reserves increased two fold to 212 Bcf + 4.2 mmbbls of condensate Gross Prospective Resources evaluated to be in excess of 1 Tcf + 20 mmbbls of condensate Logbaba reserves – VOG has a 95% working interest Gas (Bcf)
Condensate (mmbbls)
Total (mmboe)
Upper Logbaba Proved Reserves (1P)
49
1.0
9.2
Proved + Probable Reserves (2P)
212
4.2
39.5
Proved + Probable + Possible Reserves (3P)
350
7.0
65.3
>1,000
20
186.7
100% Basis Logbaba Field
Entire Logbaba Block Best Estimate Prospective Resources
Initial testing of well La-105 17
Logbaba: Exploration Upside The best potential location on the structure has yet to be drilled Majority In
of the block remains unexplored
2009, a passive seismic survey was commissioned
Significant
new structure 4 km north of the current well sites located in the industrial area —
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Surface location will be chosen to minimise disruption
Logbaba: Key Points First natural gas supplier in Cameroon
95% interest and operatorship in the Logbaba gas and condensate field
Located in the heart of a substantial industrial and energy-hungry region
Own and operate the whole gas supply chain from the well head to the customer
Forged excellent relationships with strong government support and incentives
Diverse industrial customers (likely to be in excess of 40), with 85% located within 10 km —
15 gas sales agreements signed, including multi-nationals, with a further 8 subject to final legal due diligence —
Price fixed at US$16/mmbtu ($16/mscf or $96/boe) for 5 years on 20-year gas exclusive arrangement
Initial production anticipated to reach 8 mmscf/d gross in 2012 —
Forecast production to grow to 44 mmscf/d gross by year end 2014
—
Condensate yield of 20 bbls/mmscf
212 Bcf of gas + 4 mmbbls condensate gross 2P reserves
Over 600 feet of gross pay in two wells
Outstanding potential in other areas of the Logbaba licence block –
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Lowers off-take risk and no competition
Additional 1 Tcf gross best estimate prospective resources
West Medvezhye Gas Field: Exploration Adjacent to an Existing Super Giant in Russia
West Med, Russia: Land of Super-Giants
21
West Med lies adjacent to the super-giant Medvezhye and Urengoy fields
Medvezhye has produced approximately 75 Tcf of dry gas since 1972
Exploitation Licence granted for West Med after discovery well of 14.4 mmboe with Well 103
September 2011 - Independent reserve auditors Mineral LLC announce 300 mmboe increase in gross prospective resources to 1.4 bnboe (previous estimate by D&M in 2006 1.1 bnboe)
670 mmbbls of oil
730 mmboe of gas & condensate
Source: Gazprom
Investment Case for Russia Valuation
22
The West Medvezhye exploration area represents major upside with prospective resources of 1.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent
Classical prolific West Siberian geology; targeting structural and stratigraphic traps
VOG to firm up conceptual screening and development plans for West Med in 2012
Once development plans in place, analyst and investor community will assign value to West Med
2012 two well drilling programme catalyst for re-rating
Early production facility to truck oil to Nadym located 40 km from 2015 with $60/bbl achievable
Consensus on liberalisation of domestic gas prices and fiscal improvement will lead to more attractive economics
West Med: 2011-2012 Work Programme Completed Seismic
reprocessing and geological modelling study was carried out by an independent Russian geoscience consulting institute, Mineral LLC The
first phase of the technical work, which included reprocessing 845 km of 2D seismic, incorporating new well data and gas tomography surveys was completed in June 2011 Re-interpretation
Announced
of the reprocessed seismic completed
300 mmboe increase in gross prospective resources to 1.4 bnboe
Work In-Progress/Forward Plans Conceptual
screening and development studies in progress to commercialise West Med large prospective resources and to exploit the Well 103 discovery to generate cash flow Submit Plan
23
drilling locations in Q1 2012 to the Russian MNR for two wells in 2012
for drilling to start in Q4 2012
West Med: 103 Discovery (Independent Mapping) Gas Tomography
Passive Seismic
Conventional Seismic
Well 103 discovery independent mapping by different technologies (qualitative & not to scale)
24
West Med: Exploration Targets
4 wells drilled, one discovery well (Well 103)
Well 103 has C1+C2 reserves estimated at 14.4 mmboe
Recoverable resources (C3) estimated at 170.6 mmboe
Targeting stratigraphic traps where West Med meets Medvezhye field
Conceptual screening and development plans currently being appraised
Well 103 discovery
25
Several Initial Exploration Target Areas
West Med: Conclusions
26
Work programme on target for commercialisation of the West Med prospective resources and exploitation of the Well 103 discovery
Preliminary development assessment work on the Well 103 discovery indicate first oil sales in 2015, subject to further refinement and screening
Next Drilling Campaign starts Q4 2012
Appendix
Key Management Directors & Management
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Kevin Foo
Austen Titford
Jonathan Scott-Barrett
Martin Devine
Chairman
Executive Director
Managing Director, RDL
Commercial Manager
Over 40-year career in the resources sector including 19 years in the FSU; former MD of Celtic Resources Holdings
Chartered Accountant with 20 years experience, covering both the project development and operational phases in quoted natural resource companies
Over 20-years in the resource sector. Former CEO of Eureka Mining Plc & executive director of Celtic Resources Plc, nonexecutive director of Hanson Plc 1991 to 2000
Over 13-years upstream oil and gas experience including corporate finance, M&A and debt advisory with JP Morgan Chase
Radwan Hadi
Sam Metcalfe
Ted Cammarata
Divine Mofa
COO VOG
Sr. Reservoir Engineer
Project Director, RDL
Operations Manager, RDL
30-yrs international upstream E&P experience including Africa, Middle East, Europe and Asia. Director of Blackwatch and former Head of Planning in ADCO
Over 25-yrs oil industry experience, worldwide. Has brought several North Sea gas projects into production for major corporations
Over 30-years experience in engineering and oil field services operations including senior positions with Schlumberger, Expro and Chevron
Over 15-years of oil & gas industry experience as a project manager and engineer working for J. Ray McDermott, Oceaneering and Alseas
Logbaba: History
In 2009 and 2010, RDL drilled 2 wells, La-105 & La-106 at a cost of $53m La-105 tested at prolific rates of up to 55 mmscf/d La-106 tested at rates of up to 22 mmscf/d. Both wells have now been completed as production wells
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Production facility consisting of two 20 mmscf/d production units processes the gas and extracts condensate for market. Expro are supplying and operating the plant in the initial phase
The gas distribution network serving Douala’s industrial customers will be constructed in unpaved ground, black top highway and land adjacent to the Douala rail network
The total gas distribution network will be approximately 34 km in length comprising pipe diameters between 400 mm and 63 mm and a normal operating pressure of 5.5 bar
The pipeline has a design capacity of 60 mmscf/d which can be increased with higher operating pressures
The gas sales and marketing team has signed many industrial customers, including some multinational firms, for gas delivery in 2011 and the Company expects many more customers to be signed throughout 2012. Customers are expecting annual fuel savings in excess of 30% First gas on the 17 December 2011
Logbaba: Well Testing La-105 Testing
La-105 o
Multiple pay zones tested at depths between 7,005 - 8,500 feet.
o
Rates between 11 - 56 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscf/d) of natural gas and 210 - 1,000 barrels per day of condensate. Flowing wellhead pressures varied between 2,750 - 4,552 psi.
La-106 o
Flowed at 22mmscf/d and well head pressures up to 3,078 psi
The Upper Logbaba A through C sands, although indicated as the best quality hydrocarbon-bearing sands encountered in the well logs, were not tested as the well indicated more than sufficient production capacity to meet initial gas demand of 8 MMscf/d. 30
Cameroon Market: The Case for Gas Customer Specific Benefits
Energy demand is met by high-cost imported fuels (diesel and fuel oil)
Cameroon challenged with constant blackouts and brownouts hampering expansion
Petrol and diesel costs are equivalent to UK
Natural gas creates approx. 30% total cost savings
Advance of gas and certainty of supply will pave the way for increased industrial expansion and foreign direct investment
Douala, located on the Western seaboard, is one of Africa’s most important trade centres and a major hub for Central Africa
Working with the government to facilitate new power projects driven by existing incumbents and new IPP projects
Post-2014, potential expansion in to mini-LNG & possible integration with major mining projects
Environment benefits; gas thermal energy of choice with less emissions
Contract savings per unit of energy
Improved boiler efficiencies and longer life through reduction of scaling and soot
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Benefits for Cameroon
Reduced pumping, storage and heating costs Reduced maintenance costs and less downtime
VOG: Value Proposition Valuation
VOG gas contracts unexposed to European market volatility or over supply - window of opportunity
Our current market valuation of $160 million represents a 76% discount to our core NAV on Logbaba in West Africa alone; this does not include West Med with prospective resources of over 1.4 bnboe
On 2P reserves only, VOG is valued at $2.7/boe against a median of other current African producers of $16.7/boe (mean $21.6/boe)
Not only do we expect a re-rating as a producer, the market should also take into account we own a fully integrated gas supply chain and are therefore selling gas at ‘retail prices’ equivalent to $96/boe with low infrastructure cost
Almost all development capex expended EV / 2P
EV / (2P+2C)
(US$ / boe)
(US$ / boe)
Producers Average
21.56
10.27
Producers Median
16.17
6.05
From explorer to producer
32
Note: see appendix for full analysis
EV / Risked Prospective
EV / Unrisked Prospective
(US$ / boe)
(US$ / boe)
Explorers Average
0.63
0.09
Explorers Median
0.45
0.05
Comparable Trading Companies in Africa (US$ / boe)
EV / Risked Prospective (US$ / boe)
EV / Unrisked Prospective (US$ / boe)
26.32
2.05
nmf
nmf
137
17.36
17.36
nmf
nmf
1,772
2,110
9.43
8.22
nmf
nmf
Maurel & Prom Nigeria
284
314
5.88
2.53
nmf
nmf
Orca
101
58
1.21
0.94
nmf
nmf
PA Resources
201
738
14.97
3.89
nmf
nmf
19,717
22,296
75.75
25.65
nmf
nmf
VAALCO
345
251
21.53
21.53
nmf
nmf
BowLeven
308
169
nmf
0.75
nmf
nmf
Cove
885
711
nmf
2.80
nmf
nmf
SacOil
45
34
nmf
1.83
2.50
0.52
Africa Oil
328
244
nmf
nmf
0.52
0.05
African Petroleum
667
404
nmf
nmf
2.06
0.29
Chariot
302
162
nmf
nmf
0.11
0.01
Hyperdynamics
383
289
nmf
nmf
0.38
0.05
1,467
1,018
nmf
4.58
0.57
0.12
Tower Resources
54
43
nmf
nmf
0.12
0.02
VOG
142
126
2.42
2.42
na
0.08
Producers Median
16.17
6.05
nmf
nmf
Developers Median
nmf
1.83
2.50
0.52
nmf
4.58
0.45
0.05
16.17
3.34
0.52
0.05
Company
Afren
Producers
CAMAC Maurel & Prom
Explorers
Developers
Tullow
Ophir
Mkt. Cap
EV
EV / 2P
EV / (2P+2C)
US$m
US$m
(US$ / boe)
1,430
2,106
156
Explorers Median All Median
33
Source: Macquarie, prices as at 2 January 2012 Note: Cove mid-case prospective resources taken as 2C
Customer Case Study: Cicam
34
Cotonniére Industrielle du Cameroun (Cicam) is the largest textile producer in Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), with approximately 60% market share
Cicam estimate that converting to Logbaba gas would lower their energy cost by 30%
Machinery purchased over a year ago can now be economically operated due to reliable lower cost energy
CICAM are one of our top ten customers
ADVISORS Strand Hanson Limited:
Nominated Adviser
Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited: Broker
Fox-Davies Capital Limited:
Broker
VICTORIA OIL & GAS PLC 1st FLOOR, HATFIELD HOUSE 52-54 STAMFORD STREET LONDON, SE1 9LX
Tel: + 44 (0)207 921 8820 Fax: +44 (0)207 921 8821 www.victoriaoilandgas.com
[email protected] 35
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