THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORT SYSTEMS IN GREECE The Future of ...

Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr. Wilken. Folie 17. Fig. 19: 93 Airports are Already Capacity Constrained: These Airports Accommodate 64% of the World Traffic ...
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THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORT SYSTEMS IN GREECE The Future of Air Transport in Europe D. Wilken German Aerospace Center (DLR), Köln Thessaloniki, 7 May, 2008 Folie 1 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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The Future of Air Transport in Europe CONTENTS: 1. Past Developments 2. Main characteristics of Air Transport in Europe 3. Forecasts of Global and European Air Traffic 4. Problems of Growth: Energy, Environment, Capacity 5. Concluding Remarks

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Fig. 1: Development of Global Passenger Volume

Fig. 2: Development of Global Passenger Kilometres Folie 3 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 3: Main Passenger Flows between World Regions (2007)

Tab. 1: Main Passenger Flows between EU-Member States in 1st Half Year of 2007 Folie 4 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 4: IFR Flights in EU Member States in 2007 Folie 5 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 5: Worldwide Air Traffic (ATMs) in One Week of July 2007

Fig. 6: Main Air Routes in Europe (ATMs, One Week of July 2007) Folie 6 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 7: Structure of European Air Traffic by Airline Type Folie 7 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 8a: Top 25 FSNC´s in Europe (ATMs)

Fig. 8b: Top 25 LCC´s in Europe (ATMs) Folie 8 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 9: Development of World Passenger Aircraft Fleet

Fig. 10: Price of Jet Fuel Folie 9 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 11: Airline Alliances 2007 Folie 10 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 12: Structure of Air Routes in Europe acc. to Number of Competing Airlines

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Fig. 13: The 20 Biggest Airports in Europe

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Tab. 2: Comparison of Global Forecasts

Fig. 14: Comparison of Global Forecasts Folie 13 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 15: Largest 20 Traffic Flows in 2026

Tab. 3: Eurocontrol Long Term Forecast 2005-2025 Folie 14 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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1015 BTU Air Transport Share

x

x

Fig. 16: Worlds Liquids Consumption by Sector 2004 – 2030 in the Reference Case Source: International Energy Outlook 2007, DOE 2007

Fig. 17: Worlds Liquids Consumption by Region 2004 – 2030 in the Reference Case Source: International Energy Outlook 2007, DOE 2007

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Fig. 18: Oil Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratios Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 Folie 16 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 19: 93 Airports are Already Capacity Constrained: These Airports Accommodate 64% of the World Traffic Folie 17 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Fig. 20: Congestion Worst on Fastest Growing Flows

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Fig. 21: Spare Airport Capacity in 2003 (per Airport Class)

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Fig. 22: Airport Capacity Shortage in 2025 (Scenario A)

per Airport Class

Average per Airport

Fig. 23: Airport Capacity Shortage in 2025 (Scenario A) Folie 20 Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr

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Concluding Remarks:

1.

In terms of passengers, global air traffic has grown in the last decade by 55 % (4,5 % p. a.), in terms of pass-kms even stronger by 63 %.

2.

Air industry forecasts a continuation of the demand growth rate of global air transport (pass-kms) over a long time span, resulting in a growth of 2,5 to 3 of the traffic of today in 20 years‘ time.

Growth of European air transport is forecast to be lower than the average global transport, being 3,5 % for domestic and 3,8 % for intra-European transport acc. to Airbus. Acc. to EUROCONTROL, ATM‘s grow between 2,7 % (Scenario D) and 3,7 % (Scenario A). Both forecasts are incompatible. 4. It is difficult to forecast the end of crude oil and kerosene availability, but it is likely that the production peak will come within the next 20 – 40 years, and that the time span of oil availability may not exceed 50 years. 3.

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5. Air transport forecasts are made on the basis of the working hypothesis of system capacity surplus. This hypothesis is in many airport cases less and less true. The demand forecasts are thus too optimistic. 6.

Feedback studies of demand and airport capacity reveal that the future available airport capacity is almost equal to the extra airport capacity needed.

7.

Concluding, we can see the future of air transport in Europe in two different perspectives: One is an optimistic one with a high growth potential, the other one is a pessimistic one with growing barriers to further globalization of aviation. Unfortunately, these two views correspond to two sides of the same coin: They have to coincide. Capacity is thereby the most stringhent barrier to overcome.

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