Irène Herlea (Junior Economist)
[email protected] Yann Lacroix (Sector Advisor)
[email protected]
Ingrid Gerke (Head of Credit Analysis Transport)
[email protected] Malte-Jost Arens (Risk Manager Transport)
[email protected]
15%
6% 4%
10%
1.7%
1.6% 2%
5%
4.5%
3.8%
2015 (f)
2016 (f)
0%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-5%
-2% -4%
-10%
-6%
-15%
-8%
Transportation and Logistic Gross Output Growth (left) GDP Growth (right)
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Germany
Poland
Spain
France
Weight of National Activity
UK
Italy
Weight of International Activity
Germany Poland Spain France UK -8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
Germany
France
Belgium
Poland
Austria
Italy
Spain
2
Mediumsized Enterprises 5%
Large Enterprises 2%
SmallEnterprises 25% MicroEnterprises 68%
Other costs (tolls, fees…) 35%
Fuel 30%
Staff 35%
120 110 100 90 80
USD 75
70 60
USD 63
50
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015 (f)2016 (f)
4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5%
2,0% 2,0%
1,8%
1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 (f) 2016 (f)
3
2500
8,0%
2400 7,5%
2300
7,5%
2200
7,0%
7,2%
2100 2000
6,5%
1900 6,0%
1800 1700
1692
1600
1725
1500
5,5% 5,0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
Number (left)
2011
2012
% of total (right)
2013
2014
2015 (f) 2016 (f)
% of total trend
DISCLAIMER These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below. This material is published by Euler Hermes SA, a Company of Allianz, for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Euler Hermes and Euler Hermes makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the Euler Hermes Economics Department, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Euler Hermes SA is authorised and regulated by the Financial Markets Authority of France. © Copyright 2015 Euler Hermes. All rights reserved.
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