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CLIPPING INTERNACIONAL NEGINT Brasília, 23 de julho de 2018
Índice I. OMC _______________________________________________ 2 A bilateral Brexit trade deal is vital, given the unpalatable alternative _______ 2 II. NEGOCIAÇÕES REGIONAIS E BILATERAIS _________________ 2 When a trade agreement represents a global vision _____________________ 2 Mexico's President-Elect Calls for Nafta Agreement in Letter to Trump ______ 4 Canada and Mexico optimistic about NAFTA talks despite trade tensions at G20 ______________________________________________________________ 5 III. OUTROS ____________________________________________ 7 Francia se manifestó a favor de un acuerdo entre el Mercosur y la Unión Europea _______________________________________________________ 7 Ministra española confía en próximo acuerdo UE-Mercosur _______________ 8 Brazil dam disaster: BHP Billiton faces lawsuit in Australia ________________ 9 BRF, Carrefour among Brazil trucking strike victims as Q2 results roll in ____ 10
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I. OMC A bilateral Brexit trade deal is vital, given the unpalatable alternative The Times (Reino Unido) If there is no bilateral agreement in place after Brexit, Britain will trade with the European Union under the rules of the World Trade Organisation. The WTO does vital work, but it has not proved a great success in its remit. Its rules are no viable model for post-Brexit trade relations with a single market that in 2016 provided 54 per cent of Britain’s imports of goods and services and was the destination for 43 per cent of British exports.
II. NEGOCIAÇÕES REGIONAIS E BILATERAIS When a trade agreement represents a global vision Japan Times (Japão) It’s not the clash of civilizations, but it’s no doubt the clash of opposing philosophies when it comes to trade. As Japan and the European Union signed a free trade agreement last week, the United States held a hearing on the possibility of imposing tariffs on European and Japanese car imports. At stake, though, is more than just what taxes may or may not be levied. A successful conclusion to the trade pact between Brussels and Tokyo could also herald possibilities for deepening relations more broadly between the two sides that could decrease Washington’s influence on the global stage. The Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement is certainly an ambitious one. Together, the two sides will account for nearly one-third of global GDP and the deal will eventually lift all tariffs across the board, which will allow European agricultural goods to penetrate the world’s third-largest economy, and Japanese autos to be free of 10 percent tariffs. 2
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In addition, there will be a lifting of non-tariff barriers, which will allow the two sides to cooperate on aligning standards and regulations. Because of the deal, Japanese companies will be able to invest more readily in European companies, while European companies will be able to bid more easily for Japanese projects including the public sector and hitherto closed industries such as health care. For Japan, the timing of the FTA couldn’t be better as the deal will take place in early 2019, which is when Britain is expected to leave the EU. Since the late 1980s, Britain has been the gateway to the European continent for the majority of Japanese companies, with Japan being the fourth-largest source of foreign direct investment in the United Kingdom. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had lobbied hard to persuade the British leadership to remain in the EU, cautioning that Brexit would also lead to an exodus of the 1,100 Japanese companies based in the U.K. to shift their operations to the continent. By signing the FTA with the EU, Japan’s future in Europe will no longer be as dependent on how Britain grapples with its internal turmoil over Brexit. Still, the biggest achievement of the Japan-EU FTA is that it goes in the exact opposite direction that the U.S. is heading. Having pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement within the first week of taking office in 2017, the Trump administration has pursued a unilateral approach to trade. Its single biggest objective is to reduce its trade deficit, which is currently around $500 billion. Its biggest deficit is with China, and the White House has been aggressively imposing tariffs against $200 billion of Chinese imports. With Beijing expected to retaliate in kind, an impending trade war between the biggest and second-biggest economies in the world could potentially cost global GDP to lose about $430 billion, according to the IMF. At the same time, the Trump administration is seeking to impose tariffs against its longstanding political allies. It has already done so by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from key partner nations including Japan through enacting Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 which allows the president to adjust import levels in order to protect the nation.
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Last Thursday, the U.S. Department of Commerce held a hearing on the implications of imposing a 25 percent tariff in the name of national security against autos and auto parts from the EU, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Turkey, Malaysia and South Africa. Foreign industry groups have argued that such tariffs would ultimately hurt U.S. consumers and workers, since it would raise prices and cost jobs across the U.S. By moving forward with the bilateral trade deal, Japan and the EU are making clear that the global appetite for trade deals outside of the U.S. remains strong. Japan remains staunchly committed to ensuring that the TPP moves forward even without the U.S., while it also continues to press ahead with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement in Asia which also includes China. The EU, meanwhile, is still in the midst of negotiating deals with Australia, Chile, Canada and Mexico. As the possibility of a trade war heats up as countries look to retaliate against U.S. tariffs, Washington is in danger of isolating itself from the global trend of encouraging free trade, and not closing itself to it.
Mexico's President-Elect Calls for Nafta Agreement in Letter to Trump Bloomberg (Estados Unidos) Mexico president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador called on U.S. President Donald Trump to pursue renewed North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations aimed at a final agreement including all three countries in the pact. In a letter to Trump, delivered July 13 and read aloud by his proposed foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard at a press conference Sunday, Lopez Obrador said U.S. and Mexican administrations should work together on key themes including trade. Other areas mentioned by Lopez Obrador included migration, development and security.
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“Prolonging the uncertainty could slow down investments in the medium and long-term,” Lopez Obrador wrote in the letter, which was posted to his website. “I propose to resume negotiations with the participation of representatives from Mexico, Canada and the United States.” Trump said July 18 that he may prioritize a separate trade deal with Mexico after “very good discussions” with Lopez Obrador. The U.S., Mexico and Canada have failed to nail down a deal to alter Nafta after almost a year of talks, with wide differences remaining over such issues as auto-content rules and a sunset clause. Lopez Obrador said that his transition team would begin working with the current government’s negotiators. The president-elect will be inaugurated Dec. 1 after decisively winning presidential elections at the beginning of this month. The letter also called on the U.S. to work with Mexico and Central American countries on a development plan that would address the root causes of migration. The initiative would try to tackle poverty and violence that forced people to migrate in the first place, and strengthen borders. He suggested a fund that would foster development in the region. Lopez Obrador said the Trump administration has received the letter, and a response is expected soon.
Canada and Mexico optimistic about NAFTA talks despite trade tensions at G20 The Globe and Mail (Canadá) The finance ministers for Mexico and Canada on Sunday said they were optimistic about NAFTA talks with the United States, even as trade tensions spurred by U.S. tariffs dominated the G20 meeting of world economic leaders in Argentina. Mexico Finance Minister Jose Antonio Gonzalez Anaya said there were still several chapters of NAFTA that had not yet been closed, but that the renegotiation could be completed before incoming President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes office on Dec. 1 after his landslide victory in this month’s election. 5
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“There exists a possibility that we can arrive at some type of arrangement,” Gonzalez Anaya told Reuters in an interview, adding that he discussed the talks to modernize the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement during a bilateral meeting with his Canadian counterpart, Finance Minister Bill Morneau. “It has always existed, and we hope that it stays on track.” The long-running renegotiation, launched by U.S. President Donald Trump last year, has taken on a renewed sense of urgency since Lopez Obrador’s victory. The leftist former mayor of Mexico City has said he plans to maintain NAFTA, and his allies have said the transition team will take part in talks. Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports were still casting a shadow on NAFTA talks, Morneau said. Ire over the measures from the European Union, Japan and others have isolated U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors. Morneau said that he sensed “optimism” from Mnuchin about moving forward on NAFTA, and that Mnuchin had assured him that the administration was committed to a trilateral deal despite Trump’s suggestion that the United States could move forward with separate bilateral deals. “That change in Mexico presents us with the opportunity to restart those discussions. We’re going to do that in earnest,” Morneau told reporters. We’re going to work towards trying to get to an agreement in the time frame that we’ve got in the next few months.” Morneau said he plans to travel to Mexico next week to meet with the incoming administration. Gonzalez Anaya added that he had a “very good chat” during an informal meeting last week with Carlos Urzua, who Lopez Obrador has tapped for the finance minister’s role. “I have a very good impression of him,” Gonzalez Anaya said.
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III. OUTROS Francia se manifestó a favor de un acuerdo entre el Mercosur y la Unión Europea El Observador (Uruguai) El ministro de Finanzas de Francia, Bruno Le Maire, está "a favor de un acuerdo entre la Unión Europea y el Mercosur". Así lo afirmó en su visita a Buenos Aires para participar de la tercera reunión de ministros y presidentes de los bancos centrales del G-20, informó La Nación de Argentina. "Hay algunos requerimientos en agricultura y ganadería, por ejemplo. Pero deberíamos poder cerrarlo desde ambos lados. Ahora estamos esperando que los países del Mercosur se reúnan nuevamente para encontrar un acuerdo entre ellos y vuelvan a nosotros para poder avanzar", dijo el jerarca francés. Francia es uno de los países que se ha opuesto al acuerdo entre los bloques precisamente por la resistencia de sectores agrícolas y ganaderos a que Europa pueda importar productos primarios desde el Cono Sur. De hecho, La Nación recuerda que hace algunos meses Le Maire dijo que esa negociación estaba "bloqueada". El canciller argentino, Jorge Faurie, indicó este jueves en rueda de prensa que el final de la negociación para un acuerdo comercial entre la Unión Europea (UE) y los países del Mercosur podría llegar en setiembre en Montevideo. Sus declaraciones se producen después de una "ronda positiva" en Bruselas, entre miércoles y jueves por los ministros de Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay y Brasil con los comisarios europeos de Comercio, Cecilia Malmström, y de Agricultura, Phil Hogan.
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Ministra española confía en próximo acuerdo UE-Mercosur Deutsche Welle (Alemanha) La ministra de Economía y Empresa de España, Nadia Calviño, consideró este domingo (22.07.2018) que "sería una buenísima noticia" que "en los próximos meses" la Unión Europea (UE) y el Mercosur arriben a un acuerdo de libre comercio. "Es una gran oportunidad para todos los actores en la negociación. En la línea del convenio logrado días atrás por la UE con Japón, sería una buenísima noticia que se lograse un acuerdo con el Mercosur en los próximos meses", dijo Calviño en una rueda de prensa con motivo de la cumbre de Finanzas del Grupo de los Veinte (G20) en Buenos Aires. Consultada acerca de las razones por las cuales las negociaciones llevan 20 años de vigencia y todavía no arribaron a un acuerdo, Calviño destacó que se trata de un convenio "de gran envergadura" que involucra a bloques comerciales "muy distintos". "No debe sorprendernos que haya dificultades. Pero en los últimos meses hubo avances. No debemos centrarnos en los obstáculos sino de constatar esa voluntad" de diálogo, expresó Calviño. Las negociaciones entre la UE y el Mercosur parecieron tomar impulso durante las negociaciones celebradas la semana pasada en Bruselas. Las principales trabas de la discusión
se
encuentran,
entre
otros
puntos,
en
el
intercambio
de
productos
agropecuarios. "Se han producido avances significativos", comentó el ministro de Relaciones Exteriores argentino, Jorge Faurie. Veintiocho países integran la Unión Europea, mientras que el Mercosur, el bloque de comercio sudamericano, está integrado por Argentina, Brasil, Uruguay, Paraguay y Venezuela, que se encuentra suspendido en sus funciones.
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Brazil dam disaster: BHP Billiton faces lawsuit in Australia BBC News (Reino Unido) Mining giant BHP Billiton says it will defend itself against a class action lawsuit in Australia over Brazil's 2015 dam disaster. The collapse of a dam at a Samarco mine killed 19 people and led to Brazil's largest environmental disaster. The Samarco mine is jointly owned by BHP and Brazil's Vale. More than 3,000 investors have signed up to the lawsuit, lodged in the Federal Court of Australia in May. The claim alleges that BHP failed to disclose the risk of the dam's failure to the stock market, and misled investors over the company's safety guarantees. The action from Australian law firm Phi Finney McDonald will seek to recover shareholder losses. The claim estimates more than A$25bn (£14bn; $18bn) was wiped off BHP's market value in the month following the November 2015 tragedy. The Anglo-Australian miner's stock prices fell by 22% on the Australian Securities Exchange, and by 23% on the London Stock Exchange and Johannesburg Stock Exchange. "Given the share price fall and the high volumes of shares traded, we believe it a very significant claim," principal lawyer Brett Spiegel told the BBC. BHP is also facing a US shareholder class action over the disaster, as well as ongoing criminal and civil cases in Brazil. Last month, the company reached a deal with Brazilian authorities to push back a $47.5bn civil lawsuit for two years while both sides negotiate a settlement. The collapse of the dam, which had carried contained waste from the nearby iron ore mine, caused a deadly mudslide which flattened several small communities and polluted a river. 9
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BRF, Carrefour among Brazil trucking strike victims as Q2 results roll in Reuters (Reino Unido) An 11-day truckers’ strike that paralyzed Brazil’s economy in May has investors in sectors from meatpacking to malls bracing for the final bill as companies such as BRF SA and JBS SA prepare to report quarterly earnings. As a result of the strike, some 167 meat-producing plants halted operations, resulting in 3 billion reais ($793 million) in losses for pork and chicken processors, according to estimates from industry group ABPA. That came on top of a Brazilian prohibition on exports from BRF plants and a European Union import ban that had already sent investors for the exits. “For the second quarter we expect that the majority of these companies, especially (BRF), but also JBS, should have suffered margin pressure on a year-over-year basis,” Benjamin Theurer, an analyst at Barclays in Mexico City, said in an interview. While the strike lasted less than two weeks, the knock-on effects lasted much longer, Theurer added, as a backlog of ships waiting to get into port slowly wound down. Analysts at BTG Pactual estimate second-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at BRF has fallen some 32 percent from the same quarter last year. Further down the supply chain, food retailers such as GPA and Carrefour Brasil, owned by France’s Casino Guichard Perrachon SA and Carrefour SA , respectively, will also feel the pinch. “High turnover products, commodities, products that go bad practically daily, a two-week strike would have hurt,” said Rogerio Soares, a partner at Eneas Pestana & Associados, one of Brazil’s leading retail consultants. A number of other sectors exposed to retail, such as Brazil’s mall operators, which include BR Malls Participacoes SA and Iguatemi Empresa de Shoppings Centers SA , are also set for a sub-par quarter, as the truckers’ strike emptied out stocks at many tenants.
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SILVER LINING The macroeconomic backdrop was not universally negative in the second quarter, however. The lead-up to and start of the World Cup boosted sales to soccer-mad Brazilians of everything from beer sold by Ambev SA to televisions sold by local e-commerce standout Magazine Luiza SA. Moreover, some companies saw paradoxical upsides from the strike. The EU chicken export ban had led to extremely aggressive meat pricing in the domestic market. The chicken cull resulting from the strike would have alleviated some of that pressure by lessening oversupply, said Theurer, the Barclays analyst. For grocers, warehouse-style stores, already increasingly popular with Brazilian retail customers, saw more business from restaurants and other businesses, said Eneas Pestana’s Soares. This month, GPA reported strong revenue growth in an operational preview, even as the truckers’ strike knocked 0.7 percent off total sales, as the cash-and-carry format drove growth. As many food and beverage companies failed to deliver directly to clients as a result of the truckers strike, those clients turned temporarily to such stores, often known as “cash and carry,” to meet their needs. “The cash-and-carry stores filled that void,” Soares said.
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